On June 7, Australia will play India at the Oval to add to its impressive collection of world championships. Conversely, India would be eager to end its 10-year streak of failure in the ICC competition. Although Australia would take comfort in the fact that the record in the first Test of these four rubbers is more evenly 2-2, India has recently dominated Australia, winning each of the four series between the two sides by a similar 2-1 margin. Here is a look at some important elements that could be pivotal in the final confrontation.
Typical Kennington Oval Test went awry
The second-oldest Test stadium in the world, which has played host to no less than 104 Test matches, will host a game in June for the first time. Since 2016, the average team scores in the last six Test matches played at the Oval have exhibited an odd growth pattern. The average score in the first inning is 269, rising to 280 in the second inning and reaching a peak of 326 in the third. According to day-wise averages, batters had a 28.26 average on the first day, 31.70 on the second, and 32.18 on the third. The reading is a very acceptable 30.21. confirming that batting gets easier as the game goes on on the fourth day.
Given the match’s timing—early June as opposed to the usual late summer games hosted here—the stats should be taken with caution. In the past three decades, the Oval has only twice (in 2012 and 2017) hosted a Test before August. The last four Tests there have all been played in September, at the tail end of the English summer. The local team Surrey won all three of the Championship games that were played here in 2023 while batting second. In these three games, pacers have claimed 90 wickets at an average of 27.60, while spinners have only claimed one.
Australia tops the batting rankings.
Australia has dominated the batting rankings in the second WTC, with their top six scorings an average of 46.07, comfortably two runs higher than Pakistan in the second position. Usman Khawaja leads the WTC in runs scored with 1608 runs at an average of 69.91, including six three-figure scores distributed across a variety of situations. With a combined 1000+ runs at a 50+ average and, in the case of Travis Head, a strike rate of 80 runs per 100 balls, Marnus Labuschagne, Steven Smith, and Travis Head all rank in the top seven.
India, on the other hand, is well behind in sixth place with an average of 33.74 and no batter has reached the 1000-run threshold. When WTC 2 began, India’s big three—Virat Kohli, Cheteshwar Pujara, and Ajinkya Rahane—were all having trouble scoring runs in red-ball cricket. As the cycle’s finale draws near, the middle-order staff for India has undergone a great deal of change while also remaining mostly unchanged. As luck would have it, India’s top seven in the WTC 2 final will appear identical man-to-man to what they fielded two years ago in Southampton, a forced change in the lineup after the series loss in South Africa in 2021/22. Pujara and Rahane were both fired after the loss in that series.
Left vs. right
One of the reasons given for the collapse in a heap when Australia bowled India out for 36 in Adelaide was the spate of right-handers that India inserted one after the other. The resurgence of Pant and Ravindra Jadeja in the batting order has meant that India has had two southpaws to break the glut of right-handers; however, the absence of the former will be a crucial blow not only robbing India of their best batter on from in WTC 2, but also depriving them of a left-handed batter to break up the middle order trio of Pujara, Kohli, and Rahane. Ishan Kishan is an unconventional option, but it is unclear whether India will give him his debut in the summit match.
Pat Cummins was a nightmare for English right-handed hitters during the 2019 Ashes, taking up 21 wickets at just 14 each, or one every six overs. Pujara and Kohli have been dismissed seven and five times apiece by Cummins, respectively, at averages of 24.57 and 16.40. He has defeated Gill three times with an average of 19.67, and controlling Cummins will be crucial if India is to post a significant first-innings total. Josh Hazlewood, who partnered with Cummins in their sweep of India for 36, has been ruled out, and Scott Boland is most likely to take his place. In his seven Test appearances, Boland has faced 28 opponents, 24 of whom have been right-handers, and he has averaged an improbable 11.29 against them.
India has recently bowled better to left-handers than any other team, and Australia’s top order contains up to four southpaws. With averages of 18.86 and 14.85 against left-handers over the course of the last two England trips, Mohammed Siraj and R Ashwin have excelled. The biggest selection conundrum for the management of the Indian team will be deciding who to leave out of Ashwin, Umesh Yadav, and Shardul Thakur. While the circumstances could suggest selecting four seamers plus Jadeja and bolstering their batting, as India did during their previous tour of England, Ashwin has recently had the upper hand against Smith (five dismissals at 17.20 since the 2020/21 series). Make Ashwin the winner by tipping the scales. Given his record against India, in Tests in England, and particularly at the Oval, Smith will probably be the toughest obstacle for India. With averages of 137 versus Shami, 66.75 against Umesh, and 44 against Siraj, Smith has crushed the Indian speed attack.
The difficulty facing India’s bowling lineup
The main test for India in this cycle, especially in away Tests in England and South Africa, would be whether change bowlers can bowl dry for extended stretches given their depleted pace bowling stocks. When Kohli and Ravi Shastri were in control, their fast bowlers frequently turned to bowling lengthy dry spells to keep batters honest and prevent the game from slipping away.
Consider the WTC 1 championship match that took place in Southampton a few years back. New Zealand got off to an excellent start, hitting 100 for the loss of a single while defending a modest 217 in their first innings.
India’s bowlers made sure it took them 45 overs to reach that one wicket, though. India handed up just over 50 runs in the following 35 overs with the old ball, taking four wickets in the process.
The failures in South Africa and England in the previous 18 months where they failed to defend fourth innings targets in three consecutive Tests while conceding at rates of 3.59, 3.34, and 4.93 showed that they lacked this very quality. The change pacers bowled at a rate of 4.07 per over in these three Test defeats. At the Oval later this week, India will undoubtedly miss Ishant Sharma’s experience and Jasprit Bumrah’s defensive abilities greatly, and they would badly like one of their seamers to step up.
seamers did a fantastic job at filling the gaps. With Head, Green, and Carey, Australia possesses an aggressive lineup of lower middle order batters who can end the game in less than a half-session. Australia’s lower middle order (5-7) averages nearly 39 and strikes at 62 in WTC 2.The match between two heavy weights promises to be lip-smacking, and the team that causes their opponent to blink first may end up winning.